Trump Train Gains Momentum With Key Voter Pool

For Republicans, the 18–29 age group has historically been a major source of trouble. Only one Republican has been able to secure a sizable majority of the youth vote since the Vietnam War. Jimmy Carter tied Ronald Reagan in the 22–29 age group and defeated him by one point in the 18–21 demo.
 

However, 2024 is another story. According to recent public surveys, Trump and Biden are either tied or ahead of each other in the 18–29 age range. This poses a serious challenge for Biden. Biden garnered 60% of the 18–29 age group in 2020.

The turnout of young voters in the 2020 election was unprecedented. In contrast to the three previous elections, which had average voter turnout in the mid-40s, 2020 saw nearly 55% of the 18–29 demographic cast ballots. It is obvious that Biden benefited from the Democrats’ portrayal of Trump as an existential danger to the country and democracy.

This time, that gambit isn’t working. Actually, most voters—all age groups—have grown weary of the constant barrage of claims that Trump aspires to be a despot.

For Biden, the ramifications are dire. Other than abortion, a large portion of the youth vote is most concerned about the economy and inflation. Furthermore, most men and women will not base their vote on a single subject, despite the hoopla.

Axios:

“Public polling indicates that among the nation’s youngest voters, a substantial tilt toward Trump may be imminent in the 2024 election. According to the most recent New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters, President Biden leads Donald Trump by just two points among those in the 18 to 29 age group. According to a recent Quinnipiac poll, Trump leads among eligible voters in the 18–34 age group by one point.

In contrast, CNN exit polling revealed that Biden defeated Hillary Clinton by 19 points in 2016 and by 24 points in 2020 among voters aged 18 to 29.

The survey results could be off. It’s still difficult for pollsters to reach the 18–29 age range. For surveys, landlines remain the most popular way to reach voters, although most younger voters hardly ever use them.

Pollsters are still trying to figure out this puzzle. This is why surveys pertaining to young voters carry warning signals.

However, the Trump campaign is making every effort to appeal to younger voters.

“Trump is pursuing policies that, despite their lack of perfect alignment with the conservative consensus, appeal to the inclinations of younger voters. Following his presidential proposal to outlaw TikTok, Trump surprised conservative Chinahawks by publicly opposing the initiative early this year. That position has a clear electoral advantage because TikTok is well-liked by younger users, and support for a ban increases with respondents’ ages. Earlier this month, Trump signed up for TikTok and uploaded his first video. In the last several weeks, Trump has hugged the bitcoin community. He has pledged to overcome regulatory resistance by supporting US-mined Bitcoin and NFTs as a means of assisting America in becoming “energy dominant.”

The same considerations that apply to Trump’s increasing popularity among black and Hispanic voters also apply to his surge in support among younger people. It would be premature to celebrate Trump’s support from young, black, and Hispanic voters just five months before the election, as numerous factors could still influence the outcome.

By election day, I believe we can anticipate seeing a sizable number of those demographics rejoin the Democratic Party. Furthermore, Republicans shouldn’t think they’ve permanently secured those supporters. There’s probably no Republican who can match Trump’s appeal to these voters.

Author: Blake Ambrose

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