Furthermore, recent events imply that Republicans may flip a few more seats than anticipated.
The first seat is in Nevada, a state that, despite Trump having just narrowly lost in 2020 and 2016, I had pretty much given up on. But for a while now, Trump has consistently led in the polls.
The Democratic incumbent senator from her state, Sen. Jacky Rosen, seems to be losing ground. The renowned nonpartisan Cook Political Report claims that Rosen’s race has moved from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss Up.”
Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report observes, “The Nevada flip may be a touch startling.” “After all, it is the only swing state that Democrats won in the presidential elections of 2016 and 2020, and Republicans have not prevailed in a statewide federal contest here since 2012.” It is still perhaps the hardest of the four characters in Toss Up.”
It is important to note that Taylor is not right. Remember that Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) narrowly lost to Republican Adam Laxalt in 2022, and that Nevadans chose Republican Joe Lombardo as their governor in 2022.
In addition, Taylor claims that other incumbent Democrats up for defense this year may have their “Lean Democrat” labels changed to “Toss Up.” The other elections that are considered to be toss-ups are in Ohio, Montana, and Arizona, respectively.
Of all locations, Maryland may be home to one such race. In the contest to succeed retiring Sen. Ben Cardin in the U.S. Senate, former governor Larry Hogan (R) leads both prospective Democratic contenders in general election scenarios, per a new survey.
A public Goucher College survey on Tuesday shows Hogan leading Alsobrooks by 4 points in a hypothetical head-to-head contest with 44% of the vote. Eleven percent more expressed indecision. If Hogan and Trone faced off in a hypothetical contest, Hogan narrowly prevailed 43 percent to 42 percent. Ten percent more stated they were unsure. The margin is plus or minus 3.5 percentage point pollster’s margin of error.
Mileah Kromer, director of the Sarah T. Hughes Center, said in a statement that “should former Governor Larry Hogan win the GOP primary, our results show that the race to replace retiring U.S. Sen. Ben Cardin would be closely fought against either Dem candidates—U.S. Rep. David Trone or Angela Alsobrooks, the Prince George County Executive.” “Public safety, economic growth, and tax concerns surge to the top as the important topics for voters overall, while abortion, gun control, health care, and Democratic control of the U.S. Senate also matter for Dems.”
In the very least, Democrats will now have to spend money on the race to save a seat that was previously secure for them. Should Biden remain politically neutral, the Democratic nominee might force him to campaign in that seat.
