Several Democrats practically fainted when the latest Reuters poll revealed that Harris was leading Donald Trump 44–42%. If Democrats still pray, Harris is the answer to their prayers.
We still need to complete the race, and I don’t want to stifle the Democrats’ hasty celebration of their victory. Furthermore, Harris continues to lag behind Donald Trump in swing states, where the Democratic Party consistently asserts that Harris must triumph in order to win the presidency.
Today’s swing state survey from Emerson College found that, in spite of the fervor, excitement, and exuberance, Donald Trump is ahead or tied in each of them.
In Arizona, 49% of voters favor Trump, while 44% back Harris. 48% of Georgians back Trump, compared to 46% for Harris. In Michigan, 46% of voters favor Trump, and 45% favor Harris. 48% of Pennsylvanians back Trump, compared to 46% for Harris. 47% of Wisconsin voters favor Trump and Harris, respectively.”
When compared to the last Emerson swing state survey, Harris is performing better than Biden. But how long will Harris’s initial flush of enthusiasm last? Harris’s ratings will start to decline if she lets the Republicans and the Trump campaign demonstrate to the American people exactly who she is and what she wants for the country, particularly in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
It gets harder for Biden to get 270 electoral votes if Trump wins any one of those states. Should Trump win in both of those states, Harris can depart for California.
According to Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, “Harris has regained a percentage of the support for the Democrats on the presidential ticket since the aftermath of the June 27 debate.” “Harris’s statistics now show support levels that are comparable to those of Biden in March.”
The Biden campaign, of course, exulted, saying, “We’re near!”
Jen O’Malley Dillon, chair of the Harris campaign, wrote in a memo on Wednesday, “With a popular message, a good record on the issues that really matter to swing voters, multiple paths to 270 electoral voters, and great enthusiasm for her, the Vice President is in a good position to take on Donald Trump and win in 104 days.”
Harris won’t use the term “inflation” when addressing the crowd. We won’t hear the word “border” either. There will be a lot of talk about “abortion,” which around 40% of voters will see negatively. O’Malley Dillon neglected to clarify that Harris can only receive “many avenues to 270 electoral votes” if he wins Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
Harris’s selection for vice president will be an unpredictable factor in the polls. Selecting a swing state senator or governor might have significant consequences. In a close election, a vice president who can carry a swing state into the race would be extremely helpful.
USA Today:
“Harris’ choice of running partner may have an impact on her chances of winning the election.” Although the Harris team has not disclosed the leading candidate, it is believed that Arizona Senator Mark Kelly and North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper are among the up-and-coming candidates.”
According to a recent survey, “swing state residents tend to favor one of their own: 36% of Arizona voters want Kelly to be governor; 27% of Michiganders would choose Gretchen Whitmer; and 40% of Pennsylvania voters prefer Josh Shapiro.”
Harris’s final assessment will be based on her performance as a vice president and 2020 presidential contender. If it’s true, Trump ought to be pleased with his chances.
