A recent Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll has provided some interesting insights into hypothetical match-ups for the 2024 general election in seven key swing states. Former President Donald Trump appears to have the edge over President Joe Biden in these states, although some of the advantages are within the margin of error.
The poll included hypothetical head-to-head races and more extensive fields in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Trump led in these states, six of which he won in 2016, but Biden carried in 2020. The outcomes of these states will play a crucial role in determining the 2024 election.
In Arizona, Trump had a four-point lead over Biden in a two-man race, with 46 percent to 42 percent support. When the field expanded to include additional candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, Trump’s lead narrowed slightly to three points.
Georgia saw Trump leading Biden by six points in a two-person race, with 49 percent to 43 percent support. When independent candidates and Green Party candidate Jill Stein were added, Trump’s lead expanded to seven points.
In Michigan, a state won by Biden in 2020 but carried by Trump in 2016, Trump led Biden by four points in a head-to-head race. When the field widened, the margin between Trump and Biden remained the same, with Trump leading by four points.
Nevada, which leaned blue in recent elections, showed Trump with a three-point lead over Biden in a two-man race. The margin expanded to five points when more candidates were included in the survey.
North Carolina, a state Trump won in both 2016 and 2020, had Trump leading Biden by nine points in a head-to-head contest. When the field widened, Trump’s lead increased to double digits.
Pennsylvania, a swing state that Trump won in 2016 but was carried by Biden in 2020, showed Trump with a two-point lead over Biden in a two-way race. In a five-way race, the margin narrowed to one point, with Trump still leading.
Wisconsin, another state that shifted from red to blue between 2016 and 2020, had Trump leading Biden by four points in a two-person race. When additional candidates were included, Trump’s lead expanded to six points.
It’s important to note that these results are based on hypothetical scenarios and the margin of error in some cases. Nevertheless, Trump’s early strength in these key swing states is a cause for concern for Democrats and President Biden, especially given Biden’s low approval ratings in recent polls.