CNN data analyst Harry Enten recently suggested that current polling may actually be underestimating Vice President Kamala Harris’s support rather than Donald Trump’s, who has historically been underestimated in prior elections. Enten explained that it would be unprecedented for polling to repeatedly underestimate the same party in three consecutive election cycles. Instead, he noted that recent polling adjustments made after previous errors could now lead to underestimating Democratic support, as was seen in the 2022 midterms when Democrats performed better than expected in key swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
“If the polls are going to underestimate Donald Trump, once again, that would be historically unprecedented,” noted Enten. “What normally happens is the pollsters catch on, ‘Hey, we‘re underestimating, we‘re not taking into account some part of the electorate.’ They make adjustments, and I think that helps to explain why we have never seen that the same party has been underestimated three times in a row in presidential elections, at least in the last 52 years.”
If similar polling errors occurred in 2024, Enten projected that Harris could potentially sweep the electoral map, as Democratic support could be more robust in these battleground areas than anticipated. This observation challenges the prevailing assumption among some analysts and political strategists that Trump will again be undercounted in polls, despite the fact that polling organizations have made efforts to refine their methods.
Polling expert Nate Silver echoed this sentiment earlier, warning that past polling errors have tended to underestimate Trump. “What happens then? Well, then Donald Trump wins the election in a blowout with 312 electoral votes because he carries all these Great Lake battleground states plus Nevada, plus the other states he was leading in — Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia,” Silver said.
In contrast, Enten emphasized that such assumptions might be flawed this cycle, particularly as the race remains tight across major battleground states.
What’s more likely to happen though, is that a red wave will sweep the nation come November 5th. Americans have made it abundantly clear that they’re sick and tired of sky-high inflation, poor foreign policy, and the outrageous social justice reforms the Biden-Harris administration has force-fed our nation. Despite what the polls say, Trump has the silent majority, there’s no doubt about it. Democrats better be ready for November 5th, because it’s going to be a bloodbath.
