Vice President Kamala Harris is betting that her late-start campaign will pull off a comeback worthy of a sports movie. Harris took over the Democratic ticket in July after President Biden officially bowed out, claiming he needed to focus on his presidential duties. Since then, Harris has whittled away at Trump’s polling lead, and just days before Election Day, she was leading in some unlikely places.
The latest polling shocker? Harris has pulled three points ahead of Trump in none other than Iowa, a state Trump won by nearly 10 points in both 2016 and 2020. The new poll, conducted by Selzer & Co. for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom, had polling analyst Nate Silver calling it “shocking.” With Harris leading among women and older voters, Democrats are starting to think they might just have a shot in a state they hadn’t counted on.
But Republicans aren’t exactly panicking. The Trump campaign responded swiftly, dismissing the Selzer poll as an “absurd outlier” and accusing the media of trying to “drive a voter suppression narrative” against Trump supporters. “Our voters are like President Trump: they fight,” the campaign declared. And with Trump still favored by 538 and numerous betting markets, Republicans have reason to stay confident. After all, Trump has defied the polls before.
What’s driving this last-minute shift toward Harris? She’s locked in on abortion rights, an issue that Democrats believe will keep women voters in their corner. Early voting data from Catalist, a progressive-aligned firm, shows that women have cast 54% of the ballots, a critical bloc for Democrats hoping to counter Trump’s momentum. The media has been quick to claim this as a reason for what CNN analyst Ron Brownstein calls “nauseous optimism” among Democrats.
Harris even made a stop at Saturday Night Live, popping up alongside Maya Rudolph, her longtime impersonator. In a humorous skit, Harris leaned into the “Dramala” nickname, trying to rally some last-minute support in a blue stronghold. With the latest polls tightening in swing states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, Harris’s campaign has made a full-court press to capture every undecided vote.
But while Harris rides a bump in the betting odds, Republicans know better than to take any of this too seriously. Trump is still leading or tied in crucial battlegrounds like Pennsylvania and Arizona, and his supporters are famously underestimated in traditional polling. Meanwhile, Harris’s message has shifted little from Biden’s: more government, more spending, and an ever-growing bureaucracy. And as for her last-minute surge in Iowa? Trump’s team and conservative analysts are rolling their eyes at the media’s hopeful spin.
With just days to go, Republicans have one simple message: don’t believe the hype. Harris may be peaking in media buzz, but real Americans aren’t about to buy the same Democratic policies that brought record inflation, soaring gas prices, and unprecedented border chaos. Trump’s supporters aren’t swayed by last-minute polls—they’re committed, and they’re ready to deliver another shock to the political establishment.
As Election Day nears, it’s clear the choice is between a candidate who embodies America’s strength and a candidate who’s just hoping to ride out a media bump. When it comes down to the wire, voters will pick the leader who’s proven he can actually deliver results—not just punchlines.
